QUOTE
	"TBD"

The views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of Nintendojo as a whole or any of its affiliates.

It seems some folks believe the 64DD won’t make it to the US. Does this make any sense? Nope. Not at all. I can give you at least two reasons why the 64DD will make it to the US – Zelda DD and Mario 2. Do you really think Nintendo’s going to make disk versions of these games and not release them in the States? That they’re going to pour all of their time and resources into two tour de force titles for a marginal Japanese peripheral market? Their only recourse would to release them in the US as cart games. But that raises a thorny issue – if you can make them on carts, why even bother with the disks? Nah, the 64DD is coming. The real question is when. Because neither of those games will be ready for the US market until well into 1999.

So when will the 64DD make it into American homes? The best guess is on the second anniversary of the US launch of the N64 – the end of September ’98. But there is one big problem, and it’s a biggie that’s plagued the N64 since its inception – software.

Mother 3 (or Earthbound 2) looks like a fantastic game, a must have by any standards. But it’s an RPG trying to be a killer app in the US market without any flashy FMV as a hook for TV advertising. In other words, it’s not the optimal launch title. Pocket Monsters still isn’t officially a US title (not that anyone really knows anything about it in the US). And does Mario Paint 64 look like a system seller? Not from my perspective (mostly because I’m not insane).

Still, Nintendo may have a trick up their sleeve that could make for some impressive 64DD sales. Hint: it’s the proverbial 800 pound gorilla, only rendered in polygons. A rare beast indeed.

Does anyone doubt that DKC is anything less than a force in gaming? The second and third SNES installments outsold most next generation titles last Christmas, an amazing feat considering a) the SNES was on it’s very last legs, and b) DKC2 was a year old already (both finished in the Top 15 during the holiday season). Could DKC 64 be the bait for the American public accepting magnetic disk drives into their homes? Oh, you betcha. And consider that on top of the advertising blitz that will most assuredly accompany any DKC title, half-hour adverts will beam into US homes weekly in the form of a new DKC animated series (the kids will dig the CGI graphics).

Here’s where Nintendo will either throw the dice and take their chances or pocket them and go home. DKC64 on cart will sell at least 3 million units, and I’m sure a large advertising campaign will ensure upwards of that. That’s tons of money pouring into Nintendo coffers – money that one would be grievously hard-pressed to turn down. But then again, that’s quite a short-sighted way to go about business, and with Yamauchi vowing to see the 64DD through before he retires, I’d bet the dice are getting warmed up and ready to roll.

The main reason the 64DD will come out in the US lies in two factors – Hiroshi Yamauchi’s desire to be right that you don’t need CD for next generation gaming, and Nintendo’s utmost confidence in their marketing division. Only once did NOA walk into a product knowing they were marketing a lost cause, and the Virtual Boy blew up in their face. Unless the 64DD is a VB redux, that’s not going to happen.

One of the most tedious and immaterial arguments about the future status of the 64DD is that it will fail because all peripherals have failed. Pish posh, I say. Hogwash. That’s like saying two years ago that no 64-bit console would succeed because the Jaguar failed. If no peripheral has succeeded, it’s because they were marketed poorly and weren’t worth the bother. Of course, I have no guarantees that the 64DD will be good enough to pay money for, but the reasons that past peripherals have failed fall into three camps – the launch games didn’t warrant purchase, the marketing was terrible, or the system was on its last legs anyway. Nintendo can buck the ghosts of the past easily. DKC64, good marketing, and a healthy US N64 base create an entirely new playing field. Let’s examine three peripherals that never made it and examine why.

The least of the disasters was the Sega CD. Why did it fail? First off, a terrible price point. It cost more than the base unit, which is never a come on when selling an add-on. The second problem was that it launched with versions of game you could play on the Genesis. Mind you, these weren’t anywhere in the league of Starfox vs Starfox 64 – Sonic CD was a bit better graphically with better sound (big whoop), but then again, there was terrible load time on top of it all. Sewer Shark was crap. And there were too many games that contained multi-media and little gameplay. To make matters worse, Sega decided to have "interactive" music video titles. In a very short time, the Sega CD became a joke, gaining the little respectability it has from the Lunar series. Still, the intriguing thing about the Sega CD is that it lasted for as long as it did. To be sure, the phrase "limping along" fits the bill, but it managed to build up a good sized library (the question lies in how many of them you can stomach). Why? Because the medium was cheap enough for developers to gamble on. And it offered something no other gaming system offered at the time – truckloads of space and the ability to play CD sound.

The 32X suffered a far worse fate. As a cart system, it was expensive. For a peripheral, it was expensive (costing more than the base unit at launch). And the games were unimpressive. Worse yet, everyone knew that the Saturn was coming – after all, it was already being shown off in Japan at that point. Only a fool would buy the 32X – you’d have to be even more foolish to develop for it. Very few idiots took up the offer.

The last example is the Jaguar CD. ‘Nuff said.

So what’s the situation for the 64DD? Well, for starters, it has a large user base clamoring for more product without the specter of the N128 in the shadows. The disks are cheaper to publish than carts and offer more space. And it offers something unique in consoles – writability. Throw in a modem and a sub 0 price point, and you’ve pretty much erased most of the pitfalls the other peripherals encountered. But the one thing that will make the 64DD a must have is DKC 64. And think on this – Rare was able to unveil 3 games to an unsuspecting public in the space of four months without a prior hint of development. It isn’t out of the question that the Stampers are beavering away at yet another secret game right now for the US 64DD launch.

The other argument against the 64DD is that it will split the user-base. No one has sufficiently explained what that exactly means – it seems rather like a nice-sounding catch-phrase that boils down to nothing. Let me be blunt – if a peripheral is not splitting the user base, it is failing miserably. Let’s analyze this another way – if the 64DD is a failure, there won’t be a split user base. But if it is a success, then what kind of problem do you really have? Publishers are happy for less up front costs with a captive market, gamers are happy, and Nintendo will be ecstatic. And if it is indeed a success, the 64DD will most likely cost as much as a cart anyway – why wouldn’t it sell even more then? But let’s not get carried away – the 64DD will probably not get any further than 20% of the N64 market. So the cart market will still be there for those who want to sell as many games as possible. Obviously, if your game has the potential to sell more than the 64DD user base, go for carts. On top of it all, there’s nothing stopping 64DD owners from playing these cart games. But for those who want to publish games that may be in niche genres, the 64DD would offer clear benefits. For one thing, companies would not need to have blockbuster sales to ensure some sort of profit. For another, if a game bombs, the result would be a big loss rather than the beginning of Chapter 11 proceedings. Are 3rd parties excited at the prospect of the 64DD? From all reports, yes they are, for the exact reasons above. No, they may not all have development kits for it yet, but they are looking forward to at least investigating it's possibilities.

But let’s take the other hypothetical – the 64DD is so successful that it becomes the de facto medium. What to do? Sell the 64DD for the price of a cart with a game thrown in. Believe me, if that were to actually happen, Nintendo would have no qualms about aggressively getting the 64DD into the hands of every N64 owner. A bundled N64 and 64DD to entice new owners is not out of the question.

So the question isn’t really when the 64DD is coming out – it’s really an issue of when DKC 64 is coming out. Could Rare complete this monster by September ’98? I can’t say yea or nay, but I wouldn’t put it past them. It was officially announced a few months ago, and who knows how long they’ve been working on ironing out the basics beforehand.

The final analysis is that the 64DD will hit the US market – that is a given. And getting here before 1999 is more than possible as well. The biggest sign will be the readiness of DKC 64 – without it, I don’t think the 64DD could be launched in earnest. Personally, I look for NOA to announce the 64DD for an end of September launch with DKC 64, Earthbound 2, and a surprise game at E3. I, for one, wouldn't miss it for the world.

Have some reactions, comments or questions? Feel free to either:
Hit the Forums and/or Email our Podcast at showmail [at] nintendojo.com!